Influence of Athletes to People

Picture this scene: The best athletes in your community are gathered for the annual high school varsity letter awards banquet. Halfback Henry and Jumpshot Jenny already have received accolades from the Master of Ceremonies for their accomplishments, but the attention is now focused on Susan Strike, Central High's varsity bowling superstar. Bowling is Central High's newest varsity letter sport,† he proclaims, â€Å"and we're extremely proud to announce Susan Strike has not only earned All-Conference honors for leading the Little Nine with a 206 average, but she led Central High to ts first state bowling championship. A standing ovation follows. You beam because Susan is a product of your youth league program. She is the first of a new generation of Varsity Bowling letter winners and she'll serve as an inspiration for hundreds of young bowlers in your This scene may sound like a dream to you, but it's a reality in some areas of the United States where a handful of dedicated proprietors have laid the groundwork to launch the nation-wide Varsity Bowling program during the 1998-99 bowling Varsity Bowling is going to be a two-pronged attack: 1. From the Top Down – Five states have been selected to participate in a targeted Varsity Bowling program during the 1998-99 with a focused effort to secure state high school athletic association approval for the sport. 2. From the Bottom Up – Every local/regional proprietor group in any area of the United States is invited to â€Å"test† the Varsity Bowling waters on their own. A comprehensive organizational kit, including detailed manual, videotape and support materials, is available today from the Young American Bowling Alliance and the Bowling Proprietors Association of America to help your proprietor group and local association volunteers get a eadstart in organizing a â€Å"high school club conference† to demonstrate the program's feasibility. Varsity Bowling is a program that cannot succeed without the commitment and dedication of the proprietors. You own the arenas, you have the expertise and it's your youth bowlers who will benefit the most. Varsity Bowling is one of the most comprehensive step-by-step organizational programs ever developed in bowling (or any sport). It is based upon 10 years of experience and research in Northern Illinois and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, culminating in resounding success. Be Part of Bowling's Biggest Success Story in Decades Varsity Bowling will become our sport's most significant success story in decades, with your help. Mark these figures down and watch them grow: In 1996-97, only 728 of America's more than 16,000 high schools offered any kind of bowling program. Out of 6. 1 million high school students who participated in athletics in 1996-97, only 15,600 were able to bowl for their schools. Only seven of America's 50 states had as many as 30 high schools offering bowling as an extracurricular activity. Bowling has nearly 500,000 young people participating in Young American Bowling Alliance leagues and tournaments. They know and love bowling, and most of them are denied the opportunity to experience the thrill and excitement of bowling for a letter for their high school teams. American Sports Data states interest in bowling is at an all-time high among young people, with a 15% increase in interest among pre-teens and 17% growth in interest among high schoolers. As a proprietor, you will never experience any program as rewarding as you'll discover by becoming a part of the Varsity Bowling team. Send for your comprehensive Varsity Bowling organizational kit, including detailed manual, videotape and support materials, today! order your kit now Send for your comprehensive Varsity Bowling organizational kit, including detailed manual, videotape and support materials, today! To order your Varsity Bowling kit, please send an email to Jennifer Williamson or call her at the Young American Bowling Alliance (414 423-3398. The Scholarship Management and Accounting Reports for Tenpins (SMART) program will help locate and secure existing bowling scholarships for YABA's membership. SMART will also help any organization start and manage a new bowling scholarship program while relieving new and existing bowling scholarship providers from the burden of administering their scholarship funds. YABA has developed two service levels to accomplish this mission: Level one is SMART's information and assistance level. This SMART level can be contacted in one of three ways – telephone, mail or email. SMART Level One will provide the following services: Information on how to start a bowling scholarship league, tournament or written Information on how to manage the scholarship dollars collected. Advise, assist and support organizations regarding any problem encountered in conducting or administering their scholarship programs. A booklet containing location of scholarship leagues, tournaments, and written cholarships offered worldwide; universities and colleges that offer bowling scholarships and those offering bowling as a scholastic or club sport; and national scholarship applications. In Level Two, the organization forwards their scholarship dollars to SMART, and SMART will manage their scholarship dollar on a daily basis. SMART charges no fee to use the program. SMART operates off the interest made on the scholarship funds. At the end of each bowling season (July 31st) SMART will deduct the operating expenses from the total interest earned. The remaining interest will be credited to each organization. The amount each organization receives will be determined on a percentage basis by the total amount of scholarship funds in their account. The organization then may use the interest as new scholarships at their discretion. For more SMART information, write to SMART 5301 S. 76th St. , Greendale, WI 53129, call 414/423-3343, fax 414/421-3014 or e-mail Ed Gocha at [email  protected] com. 999 Youth and Collegiate Bowlers Scholarships SMART's 1998 Youth and Collegiate Bowling Educational Guide is provided here for Junior Olympics Program To help young bowlers progress from their first visit to a center o becoming a Junior Olympic Gold member, YABA has created a pipeline (to be released in July 1999), to guide them through the different stages of development and prepare them for active roles as participants in the adult membership With this road map, youth bowlers will be guided through five different levels of bowling; Introduction to Bowling, First Organized Program, League Participation and Introduction to Tournament Competition, Purely Competitive and Elite Competition (TEAM USA). Who are Gold members? The Gold Program is the highest level of the USA Junior Olympic Bowling Program. To become a Junior Olympic Gold member, athletes must carry a minimum 165 average for girls and 175 for boys based on at least 21 games and be YABA members in good standing. Only Gold members are eligible to participate in the Junior Olympic Program's pinnacle event, the Junior Olympic Gold National Championships. More than 500 athletes competed in the National Championships held in July in Orlando, Fla. Complete Coverage of the 1999 Junior Olympic Gold National Championships. Gold members (YABA members with minimum average of 165 for girls and 175 for boys) may qualify to compete for a spot on the Junior Olympic Bowling TEAM USA hrough the Junior Olympic Gold National Championships. The program's goals are to emphasize advanced training, coaching and team bowling. In addition, the program will help develop more elite bowlers to feed into collegiate or professional bowling and become future members of American Bowling Congress or Women's International Bowling Congress. How does the Junior Olympic Gold National Championships work? Athletes qualify for the National Championships by winning or finishing high enough in a Gold Event. (Entries paid by the Event sponsor. ) The five-day competition is conducted on multiple lane conditions and consists of ouble elimination match play. The top 16 boys and top 16 girls advance to round-robin finals to compete to win the six boys and six girls spots available on the Junior Olympic TEAM USA. The Junior Olympic Bowling Program was created from YABA's partnership with USA Bowling, and in conjunction with the United States Olympic Committee. The Junior Olympic program focuses on athletes' skill levels rather than age and gender and offers several player development levels. Gold members have the opportunity to become members of Junior Olympic TEAM USA, chosen annually at the Junior Olympic Gold National Championships. Being a Junior Olympic TEAM USA member offers several benefits, including representing the United States in national and international competition, access to scholarships, training at the United States Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, Colo. , all-expense paid travel and competition fees, uniforms, recognition from other skilled bowlers and being part of a feeder system for future TEAM USA members. Canadian members are eligible to be Junior Olympic Gold members, compete in the National Championships and earn scholarships. They are unable to be Junior Olympic TEAM USA members.

Business connection The Key in perfect competition Managing costs Research Essay

Canada boasts of being among the world’s richest nations and of the western countries that have ultimate leverage over the economy, it is ranked in 10th place. It has an array of different industries characterized by a buzzing and quite rapid growth and development and production in the industries is entirely mechanized. Due to its trades it also happens to be a member of the G8 as well as Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Industries in Canada are high-tech and uphold state of the art technology and mechanization. Canada’s microeconomic issues Challenges however do come its way both internally and externally a good example being the world economic crisis of 2009 which saw to its financial stability regression and many employees losing their jobs since a majority of the industries could not sustain themselves let alone their large numbers of labor force. Previously the global economic downturn that had hit the US had led to a colossal fluctuation of market prices resulting in a massive decline of Canada’s profits. Despite the aforementioned global challenges, Canada like any other business has had its equal fair share of challenges. Sailing amongst the richest nations of the world, Canada has constantly overstretched its spending means leaving it with a huge burden of debts. According to the (Globe and Mail), it stands at a deficit of 3.3% of its GDP. Its lack of an economic slack makes it stand on the edge of a high inflation rate despite it being among the world’s countries with the least unemployed people. Canada has for a long time failed to embrace the art of international competition. Business connection: the key in perfection competition- managing costs Due to the trend in which the world has turned into a digital one with top notch technological systems being installed, and almost all operations going digital, leading to company’s marketing their merchandise on the internet. E-marketing is the most productive tool for any business that wants to thrive and stand way above its competitors and colossally out ways traditional methods of marketing. The largest proportion of the world’s population is now connected to the internet and in a bid to connect to large masses round the globe, e-marketing comes in handy as a business is able to have a wide presence ensuring it lures a wide variety of customers internationally which in the long run culminates into the company effectively managing its costs. Modern communication methods have been changing with time and it is therefore essential for the company to be up to speed with the changing technological advancements. According to (quirk biz), when correctly implemented, return on investment from e-marketing exceedingly outdo traditional methods of marketing not to mention it is at the forefront of redefinition for businesses to effectively interact with their customers. By adopting unique and state of the art e-marketing strategies, the company is able to effectively outshine its competitors. A company can also maximize on its desired profits by correctively identifying its target market and capitalizing on meeting and satisfying their needs so as to build on customer loyalty which reflects into high profit returns. This can be effectively done by emphasizing on the research of original research. That which lured customers to the company’s services and products should be used as a strength hence improved on in a bid to bait a large clientele of the company’s target market. (Lead forensics) advice on the need to carry out intelligence beforehand so as to clearly identify the needs of the purposed target audience thus the need to use current pop culture. In the spirit of beating competition and managing costs effectively, the company ought to rise a notch higher than its competitors by taking up unique strategies that outdo its competitors. Such as getting into video savvy. This is a plus to any business as it offers the company the platform to show case their unique attributes. Through this the company can also invest in animations for putting up their advertisements and is suitable for advertisements on both products and services and it would be guaranteed of effectively beating its competitors as its target clientele will always identify to the video ad. The demographic and lifestyle segmentation of target consumers helps the company in getting a clear picture of their clientele’s needs in terms of age, marital status, religious beliefs among others hence getting a clear mode of communication to them with an inclusive need of their lifestyles as well as cultures. By so doing, the company is able to enjoy a massive return on investments having cut on a lot of miscellaneous costs and expenses. It is also essential to bear in mind the customers purchasing attitudes and behavior thus capitalizing on the pros. investing on research on consumer behavior is quite instrumental as the company is able to get the niche in the industry and easily manipulate and take leverage over the market share. This can be efficiently and effectively done through a proper survey of the market and observing the target customer’s needs and preferences. The company can also invest in qualitative studies so as to get up to date with the industry and a clear understanding of the overview market share. A clear outline of a research plan should also be in calculated in the company’s research process. This is to make sure that the company is up to date with all possible avenues for doing business. All this withstanding, it is essential for the company to bear in mind the psychographics of its customers through a comprehensive research process so as to determine consumer behavior by looking into the attitudes of potential and kinetic clientele as well as pinpoint its customer’s purchasing behavior. It is possible for a company to build on customer loyalty hence customer retention and this can effectively be managed by capitalizing on the purchasing behavior of the customers hence improving on them or emphasizing on them so as to retain the customers and lure more aboard. A company can effectively manage its costs by research ing on the other places their customers or other customers shop for products and services same as its. This would give it insight on how operations are carried out in the other companies and serve as an eye opener on what woos the customers to them and in turn work on their strategies to lure back the customers, all this with an aim of being on top of their customers. The customer can also lure its customers by rewarding them for shopping at their outlets hence ensuring they come back another time. Quite a number of customers are sensitive on prices hence it is important for a company to work on its prices so as to enhance on customer retention. This can be done using the varieties of pricing techniques. Promotions are a plus in any given industry thus it is advisable that the company does promotions for its products from time to time and rewarding its loyal customers. This would out rightly beat its competitions as customers will constantly be reminded of the company’s merch andise. Effective public relations should not be overlooked as they also are a place in any business. Government’s intervention on trade regulations helps in creating a perfect atmosphere for doing trade among various businesses offering the same merchandise since competition is regulated and malicious strategies aimed at seeing to the downfall of a specific company cannot be initiated. Connection debate summary In summary, the debate connection is aimed at providing companies with the knowhow on market penetration as well as standing out from the rest with an intent of taking leverage over the market share hence beating competition from its rival companies. This in the long run aids the company in managing its costs through profits maximization. The connections debate’s pros The debate is aimed at aiding companies in taking a leverage over others in the same industries as theirs which is good in creating friendly competition. By adopting strategies mentioned in the debate, a company is assured of increasing on their return on investments as well as standing out from the rest. The connection debate’s cons Not all businesses uphold friendly business competition strategies as some can have the malicious intent of tarnishing a different company’s names so as to take entire leverage over the industry. Basing an argument from Canada’s economic state, the country has failed to efficiently diversify its target international trade partners and concentrated on only one trade partner the US which is a risky trend as its stability entirely relies on the US’ economy. In an event of the downfall of the US’ economy, then Canada’s economy is bound to fail. Referencebusbus Britany Lee fries. November, 2009. Environment: the type of economy and level of industrialization in Canada. Retrieved from http://www.canada-britanyleefries.blogspot.comIndex Mundi. August, 2014. Canada economy profile 2014. Retrieved from http://www.indexmundi.com The heritage foundation & wall street journal. Canada: 2014 index economic freedom. Retrieved from http://www.herutage.org The Globe and Mail, 2013. Canada’s 7 deadly economic problems. Retrieved from http://www.theglobeandmail.com Fred lazar, 1981. The new protectionism: non-tariff barriers and their effects on Canada. James Lorimar & amp; company. Elijah M. James, 2008. Chapter 11. Microeconomics. Published by Pearson education Canada Lead Forensics, June 2014. 3 winning ideas to beat your competitors at content. Retrieved from http://www.leadforensics.com Source document

Truearth Case Analysis

TruEarth Healthy Foods: Market Research for a New Product Introduction Case Analyses: * Isabel Eckstein the brand manager had let the introduction of the most successful product of the company (Pasta Kit) in 2006 which means that she has a very strong marketing background. * Competitors began offering similar products in 2008 which cause the growth to slow. * Some of their competitors are Nestle and Kraft. * The do not make a rash decision. The success of Cucina Fresca was a calculated risk based on significant research. The company only uses high-quality durum wheat and mostly organic ingredients. * The company further raised consumer awareness through several promotional programs, using coupons, magazine advertisements, and in-store demonstrations. * Idea generation. As the company grew, the idea generation process became a more systematic evaluation of consumer trends, with formal management brainstorming sessions. * Three important developments reshaped how consumers purchased gr oceries. The first important trend was a new, loosely defined food category in the United States— â€Å"home meal replacement† (HMR).An increase in dual-income households had led to higher disposable incomes coupled with â€Å"time poverty,† as both workers found themselves lacking the time to cook a meal and clean up afterward. Further, consumers had tired of unhealthy carryout and fast food and started seeking greater variety and freshness. Supermarkets began meeting HMR needs by enhancing their fresh, prepared food offerings. * There was no fresh whole grain pasta with broad distribution, with 85% of those in favour of the concept having never purchased it before. * Competitive Threat: Rigazzi Fresh Whole Grain Pasta. Pizzas were a core component of the Italian-American food category, with annual sales in the United States estimated at $53 billion in 2007. * suggested that 77% of consumers ate pizza at least once a month. * The store-bought refrigerated pizza market was 11% of sales and totaled $5. 8 billion, making it a larger market than refrigerated pasta, which was approximately $4. 4B in 2007. * pizza demand in key demographics had been hurt by health concerns and the popularity of diets that restricted or cut out carbohydrates. Eckstein believed this presented the perfect opportunity for TruEarth. Independent surveys of restaurant-goers showed that 33% of people had â€Å"strong interest† in a whole grain crust. * Major chains like Papa John’s and Pizza Hut had introduced whole wheat or multi-grain crusts * Kraft and Nestle are already huge players here with low-cost frozen pizza. RECOMMENDATION HAI YE FUU MEMORANDUM DATE:January 11, 2009 TO:Isabel Eckstein Brand Manager FROM:Brett Matlack RE:Introduction of Whole Grain Pizza Product The slowing growth of Cucina Fresca’s sales has placed our competitive edge in the fresh Italian food category in jeopardy.In an attempt to retain our leadership position and exte nd our product line, we have invested in the development of a new whole grain pizza. We must decide whether to launch our pizza offering. Our decision must take into consideration that the new product’s wholesales volume estimates must exceed $12 million to meet our return requirements. The decision-making process is time sensitive because one of our competitors, Rigazzi Brands, has already tested a whole grain pizza concept and is not far from introduction. Given these factors, we can either debut or suspend the product.Based on sales volume estimates and situation analysis, I recommend that the company launch the pizza. The introduction will result in a wholesales volume that exceeds our return requirements and these additional funds can be reinvested into the firm. Option I: Launch Whole Grain Pizza Product The launch of a whole grain pizza kit will capitalize on the same consumer trends that prompted the release of Cucina Fresca: growing demand for quick, customizable hom e meal replacements that are refrigerated and available in tasty, whole grain options.Also, pizza is a core component of the Italian-American food category that we cannot ignore because it is frequently purchased by customers on a monthly basis. Our whole grain pizza product resolves the time- and health-related concerns of American consumers in one of their favorite dishes (see Exhibit 1: SWOT Analysis for Whole Grain Pizza Product). The growing demand for a whole grain crust has been addressed by local pizzerias and take-out franchises, but not in the store-bought refrigerated pizza market. The immediate release of the pizza kit would allow us to penetrate this market before Rigazzi and benefit from first mover advantages.As a result, our 1st year wholesale volume estimates would exceed our return requirements by approximately $4. 5 million (see Exhibit 2: Whole Grain Pizza Concept Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1 [Excellent]). The excess returns can be reinvested into the firm an d used to expand our manufacturing facilities or further extend our product line. If the pizza kit is launched, the firm must consider the potential consequences. We must assess the impact it will have on Cucina Fresca’s success and production, as well as the TruEarth image if the product flops (see Exhibit 1: SWOT Analysis for Whole Grain Pizza Product).Likewise, we must review the potential consequences if the wholesale volume estimate is calculated using the percentage repurchases when the product is perceived to be of mediocre or average quality (see Exhibit 3: Whole Grain Pizza Concept Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1 [Mediocre, Average]. Option II: Do Not Launch Whole Grain Pizza Product The competitive environment of the pizza market and quality-related issues discovered in the BASES studies indicate that the whole grain pizza product should not be launched. Although the market generates high sales, it is extremely crowded and dominated by powerful players like Kraft a nd Nestle.Furthermore, the ability to market a tasty whole-grain pizza crust and communicate its benefits will be difficult because the American public perceives whole grains to be less appetizing than white flour. Attempting to change consumer preferences is timely and costly. By foregoing the release of the pizza kit, the company can focus solely on Cucina Fresca. The operating facilities will not have to worry about manufacturing two different product lines and our distribution infrastructure will not be overworked (see Exhibit 1: SWOT Analysis for Whole Grain Pizza Product).Likewise, our marketing team could concentrate on attempting to revive the pasta meals. This product has proven to be successful at one time. Investing all of our resources into the pizza product could be both disastrous and expensive considering we have no experience in this market category. However, by shelving the pizza, an opportunity is lost because our company would be ignoring the needs of a potentiall y profitable market. The health-conscious trend is not going away and our firm needs to expand our product line in order to retain our leadership as a gourmet, healthy alternative.Recommendation At this time, our company would benefit the most by launching the new whole grain pizza product. By not launching the pizza kit, our investments and time can be focused on expanding the pasta line and retooling the marketing campaign to improve sales; however, in order to diversify the TruEarth brand name, innovation is needed. Although the pasta market may seem safe, we must venture into new categories in order to raise brand awareness, seek new customers, and increase our profits. Exhibit 1: SWOT Analysis for Whole Grain Pizza Product Strengths| Weaknesses| Highly selective about ingredients * Existing infrastructure for coupons, magazine advertisements, in-store demonstrations * Existing formal 4-step process for research and development * Incremental investment for pizza less than pasta * Higher awareness of pizza product among Cucina Fresca customers * Successful market experience in launching new products (brand name awareness) * Existing manufacturing equipment and distribution infrastructure to get fresh food to shelves quickly * Easy preparation, but gives customers the chance to be involved in the cooking process * Permits customers to customize * Refrigerated pizza is considered tastier, more authentic than frozen pizza * Is a product for the whole family (8. /10 in mall-intercept) * 28% of home-trial users believe there is no need for improvement * 33% of respondents in mall-intercept considered the TruEarth name a favorable advantage| * Pizza kit only feeds 2-3 people * Consumers have to buy toppings separately * Limited selection of toppings and varieties offered * Considered too expensive ($12. 38 vs. $10. 09 for other refrigerated options, $11. 72 for takeout) * Only received 10% favorable to product in overall taste, texture, and quality * Limited time to product expiration (similar refrigerated manufacturing issues as Cucina Fresca) * If using same equipment, this may lead to bottlenecks in both operating facilities and distribution network| Opportunities| Threats| Leverage relationship with North Dakota durum wheat supplier to supply wheat for pizza dough * Expand serving size options * Offer single serving sizes for individual meals; whole pizzas to feed a family * Expand topping offerings * Contract with local cafes and other gourmet specialty restaurants to offer products in other store formats * Create a packaged bundle which includes Cucina Fresca and the pizza kit * Leverage TruEarth brand name to enter the pizza market * TruEarth is well-liked and considered to be high quality Utilize this to demonstrate the benefits/product attributes of the pizza product | * Health conscious mindset (e. g. ow carbohydrate diet) has hurt key demographics in pizza demand * Consumers may not purchase additional toppings * Rigazzi has test ed a pizza concept and is preparing to introduce it * Competitors may quickly replicate whole-grain pizza kit and price them lower to win larger share of the market * Nestle and Kraft dominate the frozen-pizza market * Our pizza dough’s quality may not be comparable to freshly made takeout * Pizza market is extremely crowded (options include takeout, delivery, refrigerated) * If product succeeds, product facilities may struggle to manufacture two lines (Cucina Fresca placed on back burner, limited production) * If product fails, damage to TruEarth name may make it harder to launch new products in future| Exhibit 2: Whole Grain Pizza Concept Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1 (Excellent) Total Purchase Intent| Definitely would buy| 18. 00%| % of â€Å"Definites† who actually buy| 80. 00%| â€Å"Definite† Purchases| 14. 40%| Probably would buy| 43. 00%| % of â€Å"Probables† who actually buy| 30. 00%| â€Å"Probable† Purchases| 12. 90%| Trial Rate | 27 . 30%| Marketing Plan Adjustment| Target Households| 58,500,000| Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers | 6,435,000| Non- Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers| 52,065,000|Customer Awareness| 50. 00%| Non-Customer Awareness| 12. 00%| All Commodity Volume Distribution (ACV)| 40. 00%| Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate| Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Adjusted Trial Rate | 5. 46%| Non- Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Adjusted Trial Rate| 1. 31%| Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Trial Purchases| 351,351| Non- Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Trial Purchases| 682,051. 5| Total Trial Purchases| 1,033,402,| Repeat Purchase Inputs| Repeat Purchase Occasions| 2. 00| Repeat Rate, by Product Services| Excellent Product| 49%| Repeat Volume, by Product Scenario| Excellent Product| 1,012,733,| Total Purchases| 2,046,135| Total Sales Volume|Retail Sales Volume| $25,331,151. 30| TruEarth Sales Volume| $16,465,248. 35| In Excess of Return Requirements| $4,465,248. 35| Exhibit 3: Whole Grain Pizza Concept Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1 (Mediocre, Average) Inputs from Exhibit 2| Trial Rate| 27. 30| Total Trial Purchases| 1,033,402| Repeat Purchase Occasions| 2. 0| Repeat Rate, by Product Services| Mediocre Product| 21%| Average Product| 37%| Repeat Volume, by Product Scenario| Mediocre Product| 434,028. 84| Average Product| 764,717. 48| Total Purchases| Mediocre Product| 1,467,430,| Average Product| 1,798,119,| Total Sales Volume| Retail Sales Volume (Mediocre Product)| $18,166,783. 40|TruEarth Sales Volume (Mediocre Product)| $11,808,409. 21| Retail Sales Volume (Average Product)| $22,260,713. 22| TruEarth Sales Volume (Average Product)| $14,469,463. 59| Based on these wholesales volumes, the average product perception meets our return requirements. We would gain $2,469,463. 59 in extra cash if we were to launch this product. However, the mediocre product does not meet our return requirements (off by $191,590. 79). We are only off of our return requirements by a small margin (1. 596%); thus, we may conside r taking on this initial loss for the first year. Considering the growth rate of Cucina Fresca’s retail sales between the 3rd quarter of 2006 and 2007 (194. 4%), we may predict that the initial sales volume will grow between the first and second year of the product launch. Our future sales volume will most likely cover our initial return requirements in the 2nd year and our losses from the 1st year. ——————————————– [ 2 ]. Definitely would buy x % of â€Å"Definites† who actually buy: 80% x 18% [ 3 ]. Probably would buy x % of â€Å"Probables† who actually buy: 30% x 43% [ 4 ]. â€Å"Definite† Purchases + â€Å"Probable† Purchases: 14. 4% + 12. 9% [ 5 ]. Target Households x 11%: 58,500,000 x 11% [ 6 ]. Target Households x 89%: 58,500,000 x 11% [ 7 ]. Trial Rate x Customer Awareness x ACV: 27. 3% x 50% x 40% [ 8 ]. Trial Rate x Non-Customer Awaren ess x ACV: 27. 3% x 12% x 40% [ 9 ].Target Households x Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Adjusted Trial Rate: 58,500,000 x 5. 46% [ 10 ]. Target Households x Non- Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Adjusted Trial Rate: 58,500,000 x 1. 31% [ 11 ]. Cucina Fresca Pasta Customers Trial Purchases + Non- Cucina Fresca Pasta Purchases: 351,351 + 682,051. 5 [ 12 ]. Rounded down because cannot include 0. 5 of a household [ 13 ]. Total Trial Purchases x Repeat Purchase Occasions x Excellent Product Repeat Rate: 1,033,402 x 2. 00 x 49% [ 14 ]. Rounded down because cannot include 0. 96 of a product [ 15 ]. Trial Purchases + Repeat Purchases: 1,033,402 + 1,012,733 [ 16 ]. Total Purchases x Average Spent per Purchase: 2,046,135 x $12. 38 [ 17 ].Retail Sales Volume x (1-Food Retailers 35% Gross Margin): $72,835,811. 1 x (1-0. 35) [ 18 ]. TruEarth Sales Volume – Minimum Return Requirement: $16,465,248. 35- $12,000,000 [ 19 ]. Total Trial Purchases x Repeat Purchase Occasion x Mediocre Repeat Product Rate: 1,033,402 x 2. 0 x 21% [ 20 ]. Total Trial Purchases x Repeat Purchase Occasion x Average Repeat Product Rate: 1,033,402 x 2. 0 x 37% [ 21 ]. Total Trial Purchases + Mediocre Product Total Purchases: 1,033,402 + 434,028. 84 [ 22 ]. Rounded down because cannot have 0. 84 of a purchase [ 23 ]. Total Trial Purchases + Average Product Total Purchases: 1,033,402 + 764,717. 48 [ 24 ]. Rounded down because cannot have 0. 48 of a purchase [ 25 ].Total Purchases for Mediocre Product x Average Spent per Purchase: 1,467,430 x $12. 38 [ 26 ]. Retail Sales Volume for Mediocre Product x (1-Food Retailers 35% Gross Margin): $18,166,783. 40 x (1-0. 35) [ 27 ]. Total Purchases for Average Product x Average Spent per Purchase: 1,798,119 x $12. 38 [ 28 ]. Retail Sales Volume for Mediocre Product x (1-Food Retailers 35% Gross Margin): $22,260,713. 22 x (1-0. 35) [ 29 ]. (TruEarth Sales Volume (Mediocre Product) – Return Requirement)/Return Requirement: ($11,808,409. 21-$12,000,000)/$12,00 0,000 [ 30 ]. [{ (2007 Retail Sales-2006 Retail Sales)/(2006 Retail Sales)} + 1] x 100%: [{($35,000,000-$18,000,000)/($18,000,000)} +1] x 100%

The Kashmir Earthquake of Oct.8.2005

October 8 Kashmir Earthquake: Impact on Geoenvironment and Structures in the Karnah and Uri Tehsils of Kashmir (India) A relief-come-earthquake investigation team of the Centre for Disaster Studies and Research, University of Jammu, Jammu (India) visited the Karnah Tehsil of Kupwara district for the purpose of distribution of relief goods provided by the University of Jammu and the Red Cross. Professor Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu, flagged off the team on 2nd November from Jammu.Professor Mattoo also accompanied the team upto Srinagar. The earthquake investigation team surveyed the area for collection of the first hand information on the geological aspects and impact of the October 8 earthquake in the Karnah and Uri Tehsils. The relief team surveyed the villages around Tangdhar area and accordingly the relief goods were distributed among 500 households in the villages of Tad, Nalchian, Sadana (Nastachhun), Drangyare, Tangdhar and Rangwar on 4-5 November 2005. Tangdhar-Tithwal valleyLandslides on the PAK Neelam Valley Road Besides distribution of the relief goods among the worst affected people in the area the team members interviewed a cross-section of populace in these villages to know about their future needs and problems they are likely to face. The team found that shelter is the main problem these people would be facing on the onset of winter in the area. The team also observed that the distribution of relief goods in the Karnah Tehsil was not according to the need of the people.Some areas received too much of the relief that people started choosing among the goods that were distributed among them while other areas (comparatively inaccessible areas) either did not receive the relief at all or if received it was inadequate. A Team Comprising of the following members Ghulam M. Bhat (Reader in Geology)*, Sandeep K. Pandita (Lecturer in Geology), Yudhbir Singh (Scholar – Landslides), Vinay Sharma (Scholar – Engineering Geol ogy), Sham Singh (Scholar – Sedimentology ) and Gulshan R Bhat (Scholar in Geography) visited the quake affected areas in Kashmir from Nov 2nd to 12th , 2005.The report is based on the investigations carried out by this team in Karnah and Uri Tehsils and was compiled in 3 rd week of November, 2005. *Post Graduate Department of Geology, University of Jammu, Jammu – 180 006 E-mail * [email  protected] com 1 There are 54 villages in the Karnah Tehsil and most of them are totally destroyed by the quake. Hundreds of people lost their lives, and thousands have been badly injured. About 50000 people have been rendered homeless by the quake in Karnah Tehsil alone.The area still trembles with aftershock tremors being felt every day. Most houses in the area have collapsed into heaps of rubble, and the remaining few that are left standing have developed severe cracks and can easily crumble due to aftershocks or under the weight of snow. Almost all people in the villages are now staying in tents and makeshift shelters made of tin sheets and wooden logs. They have lost almost all their personal possessions, stocks of food and domestic animals. Almost all shops and schools in the area have been destroyed.Roads and footpaths leading to the villages off the main highway have also been blocked by huge boulders and debris falls. Agricultural fields have developed deep cracks and the irrigation channels have been clogged. The earthquake investigation team visited Uri and villages beyond in the Baramulla district from 7-12 Noverber. The situation in this area is as stark as in Karnah. All the villages have been completely flattened, with almost every single building destroyed. More than 514 people have lost their lives in this area in the quake.Almost all families living there have been rendered homeless. Ruined Thamni village (Karnah) Flattened Ibkot village (Karnah) Although the government claims providing of relief to all the affected people, but there are nume rous complaints from the villagers about the distribution of relief by the government. For each person killed by the quake the kith and kin have received a sum of Rs. 50,000 only. The government also claims that it has supplied a single, one-month ration of 11 kg of rice, 700 gm of sugar per person and tea leaves, cooking- and kerosene oil.Although some villagers have received rice and sugar, but many others said that they have not received any relief from the Government. Almost every body in the area made a complaint that tea leaves, kerosene- and cooking oil have not reached the villages even after three weeks of the quake. People leveled allegations of large scale corruption in the distribution of the relief and accusations of local level officials misappropriating relief funds and material. The team was told of the politicisation of relief, with different political parties providing relief to their own supporters and vote-banks.Many people in these areas have lost foodgrains the y had stored for the winter and they need supply of grains and other food articles for at least four to five months. This part of Kashmir winesses severe winter and the temperature falls below minus 15 degrees Celsius and experiences snowfall of six feet and more. 2 The government has also announced a sum of Rs. 100,000 for each damaged house payable in two instalments (Rs. 40,000 and Rs. 60,000). However, this exgratia relief has not yet been given to each and every house owner.Even some of the damaged houses are yet to be registered, people claim. Those who have received this relief complaint that this amount is too little, and is not even enough to hire labour to remove the rubble and to purchase and transport material to build temporary shelters, let alone for reconstructing their homes. They want that the amount be substantially increased and also insist that it should be paid in one instalment. Receiving it in two instalments, as many of them argue, would mean that they might have to bribe the local officials twice, instead of once.The army has played commendable role in the relief work at some places, particularly immediately after the quake by transporting victims to hospitals, and providing relief material (food, shelter, etc. ) and medical assistance. Downslope tilting of the structures Tithwal Flattened Batpura Kandi (Karnah) The team noticed that relatively a few NGOs are involved in providing relief in the quake hit areas, particularly in Tangdhar and Uri. People in general complaint that these NGOs visit villages that are located on the main road, leaving out villages situated high up in the mountains.The team met many people who had trekked from remote villages to Tangdhar and other villages on the main road in the hope of getting some food or clothing from passing relief vehicles. The powerful and influential people get much more while the poor get inadequate relief and sometimes nothing. There are several instances of looting the relief trucks on their way to Tandhar and Tithwal. In several villages (near the main roads and main towns) large piles of clothes supplied by relief organisations have been thrown around. In some places people were using them to light bonfires to keep themselves warm.The relief organisations should send the materials of immediate use to the people, such as blankets, jackets, coats, socks and shoes, and kerocene oil. Most importantly, tin sheets are needed to build temporary shelters to tide over the severe winter that awaits them. Geological Investigation The Karnah Tehsils falls within the Kupwara district while the Uri Tehsil falls under the administrative control of the Baramulla district. The Tangdhar-Tithwal valley (Karnah) is drained by two main streams (the Batmaji River and the Qazinag River) which together confluence with the Neelam River (Kishanganga River) at Tithwal.On 3 either side of the Bathmaji and Qazi Nag Rivers are lofty mountain ranges which are cut into narrow gorges and de ep defiles. The terrain is rugged and remains snow covered during the winter months. The famous Sadana Pass, which lies at an elevation of 10417 feet above msl, cuts off the Karnah valley from the main Kashmir valley. The Tangdhar Tithwal valley hosts a population of about 50 thousand, which is mainly dependent on agriculture. A portion of the population works in public and private sectors within and outside the state. There are 54 villages, which are situated in the two subsidiary river valleys.Geologically the entire landmass of the Karnah Tehsil can be categorized in the three stratal categories including the older alluvium, older river terraces and the mountain and hill slopes. Agriculture is being practiced on the older alluvium and at places the settlements also exist on these deposits. Most of the settlements in the entire Karnah valley are confined either to the older river terraces or to the mountain and hill slopes. As a rule the mountain and hill slopes are vulnerable to landslips, landslides, debris flows and shooting stones, as is the case with the Karnah valley.Also the older terraces are highly vulnerable to debris flows and slips during flash floods and earthquakes. The Karnah valley is prone to flash floods as is evident from the recent records and the geological evidences in the area. Our investigation reveals that in the past the entire area has witnessed the earthquake comparable with the October 8 earthquake and even of more intensity. This fact has been confirmed by the local people who claim that their elders have revealed to them the furry of flash floods in the entire valley in the past that compelled them to shift their settlements to the mountain slopes.The furry of nature did not spare them even at the higher elevations when severe earthquake struck the region in the past killing most of the inhabitants settled on the mountain slopes. The skeletons of the buried human beings are sometimes brought out of the debris due to landslides and slips at a depth of about 20-m in both the Karnah and Uri areas. el am Ri ve r Ne 2150m 3100m 2250m Bathmaji River 1500 m Road Rupture 2000m 2100m Tract Fualt er River/stream Sinking Rupture zi N ag 1600m Locality R iv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 km Ruptures developed on the mountain ridges in Karnah Area (G. M. Bhat et al. University of Jammu, 2005) Ka 4 Fig. 1: Tectonic map of the Tangdhar-Tithwal sector, Karnah The October 8, 2005 earthquake shook the entire Karnah Tehsil damaging almost 100% structures, killing about 270 human beings and thousands of animals. The earthquake has devastated the mountain cliffs, ridges, slopes and even the agricultural fields. The road network in the entire Karnah Tehsil traverses through the unstable zones. The only construction materials available in the area are rocks and timber. Almost all the residential and official buildings are multistoried and made up of rocks and timber.These structures are susceptible to collapse even at moderate earthquakes. It is because of the poor foundations and unstable ground conditions of the area that almost all the buildings within a radius of 60 km of the epicenter collapsed and within the radius of 100 km of the epicenter all the buildings were partially damaged. Liquefaction at Karalpura (Kupwara) Sand Blows at Simbal Camp, Jammu The Batmaji- and Qazinag Rivers are flowing along the fault lines in the Tangdhar-Tithwal area. The October 8 earthquake that occurred on the Main Boundary Thrust has activated these subsidiary fault lines in the area.The evidences are seen on either side of these fault lines along the mountain ridges whose expression is visible on the mountain slopes in the form of longitudinal cracks. These cracks are a few meters in aperture and a few meters deep on the mountain ridges. At places a vertical slip of about 1-m is seen in these mountain ridge cracks. We noticed these ridge cracks from Tithwal through Green Patch, Dhaken, Amrui, Tad, Sadana Pass, to Chokibal and from Tithwal through Tangdhar Bakhain, Rangwar and Karalpura to Nutnusa. The salient features of these fractures and the field notes taken on these displacements are briefly described here.Karalpura An earthquake of magnitude 4. 4 with its epicenter at lat 34. 59 0 N and long 73. 620 E on 3rd of November, 2005 at 0625 hours produced liquefaction in the village of Karalpura. On our return from Tangadhar on 7 th of November the process was on and the area of activity had spread over to about 4 square km in the vicinity. There are a number of other sites in this area where water was oozing out of the paddy fields and in the Dar Mohalla of the Karalpura town. On the 3rd of November the water gushed out at three spots in the Dar Mohalla and ejected black sand in large quantity which was thrown into the air upto 1. m. Liquefaction is a process that occurs when a loosely packed grain framework is suddenly broken down; the grains become temporarily suspended in the pore fluid, and settle throug h the fluid, displacing it upward, until grain-supported 5 structure is re-established. The lower threshold of shaking intensity of about MM VI can produce liquefaction in sensitive deposits. Liquefaction can be developed at earthquake magnitudes as low as about 5, but that a magnitude of about 5. 5 to 6 is the lower limit at which liquefaction effects become relatively common.At Karalpura the sand blow craters are 0. 7 m in diameter and have ejected black sand in large quantity. It is located at about 100-km aerial distance from the epicenter of the earthquake. The ejected sand suggests the alluvial fan deposits at depth. It is interesting to note that the Karalpura liquefaction initiated due to an earthquake of magnitude 4. 4 and after one months period from the main quake. The liquefaction associated with the October 8 earthquake and aftershocks offers an opportunity to develop relations to constrain the magnitude of the past earthquakes in the same tectonic setup.It is also the best reference to compare its dimensions with the palaeo-liquefaction and thereby to assess the recurrence interval for larger events for the same seismic source or an average interval for a region. The liquefaction process can help to identify the earthquake prone areas and contribute to the earthquake hazard assessment. 2700m 1800m Kamalkot Chakoti 1100m Kaman Urusa 1300m 1350m Chakra Isham 1400m 2000m Jabla Uri 1400m 1400m Salamabad Lagama 1400m Fault Line Locality Kamalkot Mt Ghundi 1600m Basgiran Sultan Dhakki m e lu Jh R iv er Road(NH) River/Stream Path Sinking Rupture 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 kmRuptures developed on the mountain ridges in Uri-Kaman Post sector (G. M. Bhat et al. , Geology Department, University of Jammu, 2005) Fig. 2: Tectonic map of the Uri-Kaman Post Sector, Kashmir 6 Loss of Agricultural fields (Patti Thamni) Karnah Building on the older alluvium (Karnah) Green Patch Green patch is the mountain ridge at an elevation of about 1900-m above msl. Below this ridge is situated the villages of Beari and Dringla on its western and eastern slopes respectively. These villages host about 100 households with a population of about 700. The entire settlement has been razed to the ground.The mountain slopes have been cracked both longitudinally and transversely. The cracks run parallel to each other for a few hundred of meters and are often cut across by subsidiary cracks. The aperture of the main cracks ranges from 1 m to 4 m and a visible depth of about 3-m. At the ridge of the Green Patch there exists a large crack which runs all along the ridge for about 1. 0 km till it coincides with the another crack developed in the adjoining mountain ridge cutting across the Green Patch ridge. On either slope of the Green Patch Mountain longitudinal and transverse cracks of different sizes have developed.The Longitudinal cracks run parallel to the main ridge crack. The vertical slip of the Green Patch ridge is about 1. 0 m with the crack aperture approaching 4 m. Cracks in Green Patch Mt. ridge Shattered rocks on the Green Patch Mt. ridge Dakhen The Dakhen Mountain is about 2000 m above msl and on its eastern side are situated the villages of Ibkot, Pati Dakhen, Pati Thamni and Bahadarkot and on its western side is situated the Green Patch. The mountain ridge is fissured all along the ridge for a few kilometers in the NNE-SSW direction. Main lithology of the mountain is 7 quartzites and phyllites.On either side of the ridge occur a number of parallel fractures on the slopes whose aperture ranges from 15 cm to a maximum of 1. 0 m. These fractures are deep and the visible depth is 1. 5 m. At the mountaintop the vertical slip of about 0. 75 m has taken place. There are about 90 households situated on both the sides of this mountain with a population of about 400. Almost all the houses are razed to the ground with heavy human casualty and tremendous loss to the livestock. The slopes are vulnerable to the landslips and debris flows, which can tri gger during rains and future earthquakes.Tithwal Mountain Ridge The Tithwal Mountain ridge is also fissured and has resulted in the rock falls, which has inundated the Tithwal town. The road section beyond Tithwal town has been scrapped out into the Neelam River. Tithwal village is almost 100% damaged. A few buildings are standing but are unsafe for living. Settlements in the foot of the mountain range are highly vulnerable to future landslips and shooting stones. Chhamkot-Sikh Bridge The villages between Chhamkot and Sikh Bridge include Pingla-Haridal and Chitarkot. At Pingla-Haridal is situated a hydroelectric power project of 2 MW capacity on the Qazinag River.This power project lies just below the confluence of the Batmaji River with the Qazinag River and has been severely damaged by the earthquake. The massive debris flow has occurred in this stretch of the valley and a large piece of agricultural land has got lost. Two human bodies are still buried under the huge debris fall d eposit near the powerhouse site in the Qazinag Riverbed. The paddy fields on either side of this stretch of the valley have developed parallel cracks running along the river course (NNW-SSE) whose aperture ranges from a few centimeters to 0. m. The visible depth of these cracks is about 2 m. A large fissure cuts across the National Highway at Chitarkot. The aperture of the fissure is 1. 0 m and its visible depth is almost 3 m. From Chitarkot towards Sikh Bridge a number of debris fall deposits have destroyed the National Highway. . Fissures in the Green Patch Mountain Building on the older river terrace 8 Kandi The Kandi village lies on either side of the highway and has been devastated by the earthquake. It hosts a population of about 1500 confined to about 350 households.On the hill side of this township emanates a spring on the mountain slope, which ejects black and creamy slurry at regular intervals. The water content of the springs in the area has also increased after the earth quake. Below the township of Kandi are situated the villages of Chanpura and Trebani which together hosts a population of about 200 in about 40 households. The earthquake has destroyed all the households and has ruptured the paddy fields. Liquefaction has occurred during the main earthquake at a number of places in the area.The mountain slope on the eastern side of these villages has been fissured at the ridge and at a number of places on its slope. The slip is about a meter at the ridge. At a number of places debris and rock falls have inundated the houses situated at the foot of the mountain and a few houses are totally buried under the debris. Opposite the Kandi Bala a tipper has been buried under the debris which has fallen from this mountain. Tangdhar Bakhain The Bakhain Ridge is also fissured which runs parallel to the Tangdhar nar in the vicinity of Tangdhar town.On either side of this ridge are situated number of villages and an army camp. The rocks of the mountain are mainl y quartzite and form its steep slopes on either side. The whole mountain has developed fissures of different sizes, which run parallel to the main ridge fissure. The main fissures are 3 m deep having an aperture of 1 m. The vertical displacement is about 0. 5 m. On either side of the mountain slope rock falls have taken place and scarps have developed. Boulders as big as a building have slipped down the mountain and hit the buildings situated at the foot of the mountain.There is high risk of falling of these hanging rock blocks and can be of serious consequences. Evidence of the past human settlements exists on this mountain. It is said that Dub Wali Mosque was situated on this mountaintop in the past. An earthquake of severe intensity destroyed the settlement. There are a few Okhalies scattered on the mountain slopes and its top, which have been carved out in huge rock blocks of quartzites. Besides, a number of earthen parts (broken) are scattered on the slopes and mountaintop, a f ew of them embedded in the topsoil of the mountain. Fissure at the Tangdhar BakhainOkhali found at the Bakhain Mt ridge 9 Sadana Pass (Nasta Chhun) On the left side of the Sadana Pass lies the snow-covered mountain known as Eagle top on which was situated an army post. On the day of earthquake rock fall occurred on this mountain resulting in the burial of the army post killing 12 jawans who are buried there for ever. On the ridge of this mountain fissures have developed which are in continuity with the fissures developed in the mountain ridges of the Karnah valley. On the National Highway 4 km before the Sadana Pass fissures have occurred on the mountain slopes which traverse the highway also.In the same direction and in its continuity lies the mountain at Rangwar, which has developed large fissures similar to those of the Karnah Valley Mountains. The Rangwar village has been totally devastated and a population of about 100 people has shifted from the village to the roadside (a walk of about 2 hours). In this locality parallel fissures have resulted in rock- and debris falls inundating the settlements and the agricultural fields. Below this location towards Kupwara the intensity of damage is progressively decreasing.However, it is not known whether fissures have developed in the mountain ridges and slopes of this belt or not. Evidences of rupture in the agricultural fields and around the settlement at Karalpura suggest that fissures may have also developed in the vicinity of these areas. We observed liquefaction at Armpura, Nutnusa, and Badarkal on its journey to Uri via Kupwara-Handwara-Baramulla road. The local residents said that on the earthquake day blue coloured water ejected out of these liquefaction craters and at a few places brownish water emanated.The craters have dried up since but the scars are still present in these areas. People also revealed that water in the springs in these areas has increased due to the earthquake. We were told by the local people in the entire Karnah valley about the abnormal animal behavior (dogs and jackals) one day before the earthquake struck the area. They say that at the mountain ridges and slopes flames were seen emanating at the places where ruptures have occurred. This was followed by the dust bursts into the air. The intensity was so severe that for the full day the visibility was very poor.It was not until the rains started on the evening of October 8 that settled the dust clearing the atmosphere. During our stay in the Karnah valley 3-4 aftershocks were felt daily whose intensity was enough to cause further damage to the hanging structures, walls and tilting of the trees. The area is still experiencing the aftershocks and none of them of magnitude above 6 (IMD). 10 Kaman Post bridge The inner walls intact in a mud mortar house (Karnah) On the way to Uri from Baramulla we observed fissures developed on the banks of the Jhelum River near Sheeri.The fissures are continuous along the riverbank s whose aperture varies from a few centimeters to more than meter. The visible depth of these fissures is more than 2 m. On the left bank of Jhelum River at this location there are cracks in the mountain slopes which can be traced upto Tangamerg and beyond. Jehlum River bank near Kichhama Buildings on the bed rock near Red Bridge, Uri The spring situated near the mountain foot at the village Kichhama has completely dried up immediately after the October 8 earthquake. The spring water was used to irrigate about three hundred kanals of paddy land in the area.The fissures are traceable from this locality through the villages of Malpura, Dangapura, Sultanpura Kandi, Dudhbug, Nilasar, Chunti Pathri, Babarishi upto Tangmarg. In this belt the intensity of damage to the buildings increases towards the mountain slopes and their foot belt. Most of the buildings are not safe for living in this belt. Uri to Kaman Post The National Highway 1A from Uri to Kaman Post, a stretch of 17. 2 km, is tot ally damaged by the earthquake. The highway stretches have been washed away completely at a number of places.Culverts, bridges and other infrastructures have been damaged. It was in this sector of the highway that 66 Beacon personnel, who were at work, got killed during the earthquake. A number of vehicles including those of Beacon and private 11 sector have got damaged on this highway. Landslips, debris- and rock falls and shooting stones have struck most of the road sections. Almost total stretch of the highway has developed cracks along and across its entire length from Uri to Kaman Post. The main bridges, which have been damaged, include those of Red Bridge, Twin Bridge and the Aman Sethu.The most damaged bridge is the Aman Sethu whose one abutment on the PAK side and one panel of 70 m in length has been completely destroyed. All the buildings from Uri onwards have been damaged and the intensity of damage is complete beyond the Uri town. The area hosts a population of about 115 thousands. On either side of the Jhelum River the mountain ridges and their slopes have been fissured. The fissures run parallel to the river axis. The most devastated ridges include those at Sultan Daki, Kamalkot on the rightbank of the Jhelum River.The left bank mountain ridges and slopes fissured occur at Kaman Post, between km 8-10 to Kaman Post, Salamabad and Uri. Damaged and blocked Uri-Kaman Post-Muzzaffarabad Road sections Sultan Dhaki and Kamalkot On the mountain ridge above the township of Sultan Daki a large fissure has occurred on the eastern slope due to the October 8 earthquake. Black and brownish coloured water emanated from a number of spots which gushed out into the air a few tens of feet on the day of earthquake, said one soldier posted at a near by army post.Earlier the quantity of water emanating from this spring was a few inches, which is now flowing in the form of a large stream capable to run a few mills. The quantity of black water emanated from this fissure can be judged from the fact that the colour of the Jhelum River water from this point downstream turned black for about 15 days. The rocks on the mountain slopes over which the stream is flowing have turned either black or brown, which can be seen from the distant location on the National Highway. A similar water ejection has taken place on the same mountain ridge at Kamalkot about 5 km downstream.Both the areas have suffered a great damage as far as the buildings, livestock and the human causalities are concerned. These two townships have become most vulnerable to future landslips, rock- and debris falls and shooting stones. The 12 fissures developed on these mountain ridges and slopes are 4 to 5 m in aperture, more than 6 m in visible depth and are continuous for a few kilometers. There are a number of transverse cracks, which have developed across the longitudinal fissures. There is visible movement along these cracks in the entire area, which has frightened the local populace in general.At many places in this belt the agricultural land has been washed away by the landslips and debris falls. It is in this area that skeletons of human beings get exposed from the old debris, which has accumulated over them for the last few centuries. Possibly a strong earthquake may have struck this area devastating the settlements on these mountain slopes which got buried under the falling debris at that time. Similar is the situation today that at a number of places in the entire sector many of human bodies are lying under the huge mass of debris, which fell on them during the recent earthquake.Sultan Dhaki Mt. rupture (Kamalkot) Upslope tilting of the structure at Kamalkot Kaman Post The abutment of the Kaman Post Bridge (Aman Sethu) has been completely damaged on the PAK side. It is completely grounded and one of the three panels on that side is also completely destroyed. The central two piers have developed cracks at the foundation level and are unsafe for future use. On the Indian side abutment being partially built on the bed rock has sustained the shock. However, the complete bridge should be reconstructed on the firm foundation preferably at a new location.The bridge is located over the Khaliane de Kas (dry nala) through which runs a subsidiary fault of the Jhelum Tear Fault. The older river terrace at the Kaman Post on the PAK side has fallen into the nala over which the bridge is erected. The whole highway stretch on the PAK side is also destroyed. National Highway at Km 8 to 10 At this location the highway is damaged and a portion of it has been washed away. There exist a number of longitudinal cracks on the highway, which run parallel to the fissures, which have developed on the mountain ridges and their slopes. The fissures are about 1 m in aperture and a few meters deep.There is a vertical slip of about 1-m along these cracks. These displacements have resulted in rock- and debris falls and shooting stones in this sector of the highway. Th e settlements on these mountain slopes have been completely destroyed. Water in the springs emanating on these slopes have increased due to the earthquake. However, slowly and steadily is now decreasing. We 13 observed cracks cutting across the main fissures on the mountain slopes along which vertical displacement has taken place. Red Bridge Both the abutments of the Red Bridge have developed cracks.One of the abutments has partially fallen. There are severe cracks developed on the road and fissures occur at the mountain slopes at this location. These fissures are in continuity with other fissures developed on the mountain ridges in the area. Cracks on the slope at Jula village, Uri Twin Bridge, Uri Twin Bridge The earthquake has also destroyed the Twin Bridge. Both of its abutments have been damaged and the cracks are developed on the road section. These cracks are also expression of the main fissures developed on the mountain ridges and their slopes in the area.Besides the main br idges on the highway sector from Uri to Kaman Post a number of culverts have been partially damaged. Mention may be made of these damaged bridges and culverts i. e. , Red Bridge, Twin Bridge, Kaman Post Bridge, Lagama culvert, Salamabad, Urusa, Bhim Post, etc. Structures The intensity distribution estimated and interpreted by the Pakistan Geological Survey is closely associated with the rupture zone (Hussain et al. , 2006). Within the rupture zone, the city of Muzaffarabad suffered great damage (IX-X on MMI scale), and the city of Balakot was almost totally destroyed (X on MMI scale).Outside the narrow (5-10 km) width of the rupture zone, the signs of damage appeared to be fairly minor. While damage has been reported in more distant locations such as Abbottabad (35 km from rupture zone), Islamabad (64 km), and Lahore (> 250 km distant), and has been attributed to local site effects or poor construction rather than direct intense shaking from the earthquake. Table 1: Locality-wise in tensity of earthquake affected areas in Jammu and Kashmir Locality Intensity Locality Intensity 14Simbal Camp (Jammu)* IX Trebani IX Chanpura IX Uri Tehsil Kamalkot X Tad IX Sultan Dhaki Village IX Chitarkot X Sultan Dhaki Hill X Chamkot X Urusa IX Pingla Haridal X Jabla IX Bahadarkot X Salamabad VIII Ibkot X Lagama VII Dakhan X Kichhama IX Gundi Saiyidan IX Nambla IX Gundi Gujaran IX Sadwanian IX Gundi Shath IX Isham IX Thamni X Dringla X Karnah Tehsil Rangwar IX Tithwal X Drangyare IX Beari X Nastachhun VII Green Patch IX Bagh Bella IX Kupwara and Handwara Nalchian IX Karalapura* IX Tangdhar VIII Natnus* IX Tangdhar Bakhain VIII Armpura* IX Kandi Bala X Badarkal* IX * Intensity measured on the basis of liquefaction only Table 2: Locality-wise building types and percentage of damages Simbal Camp (Jammu) Kamalkot Sultan Dhaki Village Urusa Jabla Salamabad Lagama Kichhama Rangwar Tangdhar Tangdhar Bakhain Kandi Bala Chanpura Tad Chitarkot Chamkot Pingla Haridal Bahadarkot Ibkot Dakha n Thamni Dringla Tithwal Beari A&B C&D B, C & D B, C & D C&D B&C B&C B C&D A, B, C&D B&C B&C B&C C&D B&C B&C B&C C&D C&D C&D D B, C&D B, C&D C&D 2-3% 90-95% 90-95% 60-70 % 60-70% 65-75% 40-50% 30-40% 80-90% 50-65% 60-80% 80-90% 80-90 % 100% 80-90 % 75-80 % 80-90 % 90-95% 100% 100 % 100 % 80-90% 100% 100% The damage by the earthquake in Karnah and Uri areas has been severe close to the epicenter in the range of 50 km and progressively decreasing away. The intensity of 15 damage at various localities in the surveyed areas on the revised MMI Scale (ABAG, 2003) is given in Table 1. The type of the houses and the percentage of damages are shown in Table 2. In both the areas of Uri and Karnah most of the villages are built either on the older river terraces or on the hill slopes. The constructed houses in these areas are mostly single or double storey un-reinforced earthen wall stone masonry buildings.Stone masonry buildings are more common in these villages. The stone masonry walls consi sted of irregularly placed undressed/dressed stones, rectangular and rounded, that were laid in cement sand and mud mortar. A significant number of casualties and injuries were associated with the total collapse of these structures. Unreinforced one or two storey brick masonry buildings with roofs constructed with wood and CGI tin sheets are also seen in these areas. These structures were also razed to the ground within the 10 km range of LOC. The area affected by major shaking lies within a radius of 50 km from the epicenter with the destructiveness of the shaking reducing quickly as one move away from the LOC.The intensity of the shaking has been severe in Karnah- and Uri Tehsils in the vicinity of LOC. In these areas a 1. 0 to 1. 5 m vertical slip component has caused the extreme damage to the structures. These structures mostly collapsed in place, rather than being thrown over or developing diagonal tension cracks. Our observations in Kashmir reveal that three types of ground co nditions prevail in the earthquake affected areas. We also observed four types of building structures including Masonry A, B, C, and D in these areas. The intensity of damage varied in the three types of ground conditions even for the same type of masonry structure (both vernacular and modern engineered structures).In case of concrete block construction, the problems include poor block strength, weak mortar and lack of seismic detailing. In whole of the Karnah area we noticed two buildings constructed following the building codes. These buildings have behaved different to the earthquake shaking due to the different ground conditions. In general fire-clay brick masonry wall buildings have performed better than the other types of wall construction. A number of buildings in the area are wooden frame structure filled block or brick wall with either cement or mud plaster finish. Either type of buildings has suffered damages different one another according to the ground conditions in the area.The Jammu and Kashmir State has been classified in the zone-IV with two patches placed in zone V in the seismotectonic map of India 2002. These estimates are based on scanty earthquake record of the area. The northwestern part of Himalaya has been neglected regarding the studies on earthquakes and crustal deformation as compared to other parts of India. A series of active thrusts and faults are running across the state. Seismic hazard is not given a great deal of attention in urban planning and policy decisions, and seismic design does not appear to be high priority in the state. There is no code enforcement in the region. The observations mentioned above should be kept in view while formulating building codes for these and other similarly situated areas in Jammu and Kashmir.We also suggest that micro-zonation of the major cities and towns are taken up at priority basis before the building codes are formulated for the state. Other Aspects 16 In addition to the geological invest igations we collected data on other aspects including village-wise death tool of human and livestock and loss of structures. The villages and towns surveyed include Tangdhar, Kandi, Ibkot, Dringla, Tithwal and Uri. The salient features of this study based on questionnaire filled up by the randomly selected 87 householders are given in Tables 3 to 6. Stone masonry building on the bed rock at Kandi Concrete Building on the older alluvium (Tribuni) Table 3: No. f Deaths in the households of the Surveyed villages Area Deaths Percent (%) Uri Sultan Dhaki 26 38. 80 Kamalkot 09 13. 45 Ibkot 07 10. 45 Kandi 08 11. 94 Panjtaran 15 22. 38 Tangdhar Beari 02 2. 98 Total 06 67 100. 0 Villages Table 4: Demographic Change in the Population of the Surveyed Area S. No 1 2 3 Sex & Age Male Child Female Child Male Adult Past Present Dead population population 141 121 20 (29. 85) 107 165 143 556 102 143 123 489 05 (7. 47) 22 (32. 83) 20 (29. 85) 67 4 Female Adult Total 17 Figure 1: Past & Pre sent Popu lation Status 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 M ale Fem ale Child Child Male Fe m ale Adult Adult Number pas t pop. res ent pop. Age & Sex Groups Table 5: Availability of amenities in the Surveyed Population Amenities Uri Available 25 05 00 00 00 Tangdhar Available 16 14 00 14 00 Electricity Water Education Ration Medical facility Not Available 00 20 05 20 00 Partially Available 00 00 20 05 25 Not Available 46 48 60 46 38 Partially Available 00 00 02 02 24 It can be viewed that about 31 percent of the households have got full-fledged Govt. /Social amenities and 69 percent of the households are partially benefited. The educational facility in both the areas has come to standstill. The list of village-wise deaths reported from Uri Tehsil is given in Table7.Table 6: Status of loss from the total households of the surveyed area Parameter Loss No loss Total Conclusions In the Karnah valley the mountain ranges on either side of the Batmaji and Qazinag Rivers have developed fissures at t heir ridges and their subsidiaries on their slopes. The fault line lies along these rivers, which has got activated by the recent Property ( % ) 85 (97. 7) 02 (2. 3) 87 (100. 0) Livestock ( % ) 22 (25. 28) 65 (74. 72) 87 (100. 0) 18 earthquake. This has resulted in a net vertical slip in the entire area, which has its expression in the development of fissures on the ridges of the mountains. The area is witnessing the aftershocks of intermediate magnitude daily whose frequency varies between 2 to 3. The expression of this fault line is traceable beyond the Karnah valley across the Sadana Pass in theKupwara Tehsil through Chokibal, Rangwar, Nutnusa, and beyond. The ongoing liquefaction process at and around Karalpura should be closely monitored because it involves more areas with the passage of time. This is also necessary because this location is the only one that has got involved in this process after the main earthquake of October 8. Its intensity increases with the increase in the magnitude of the earthquakes taking place in the region. Deaths in Different Age Groups 17% 40% 0–15 16–30 31–59 23% 20% 60+ Similarly the mountain ranges in the Uri-Kaman Post sector of the Uri Tehsil have developed fissures on the ridges with subsidiaries on their slope.These fissures are developed on either side of the Jhelum River. In this area the Jhelum Tear Fault runs all along the river axis and has got activated by the recent earthquake. Evidences suggest that the readjustment of the rocks is still in progress and results in earthquakes whose epicenter is located around this area. The USGS observatories have also recorded the seismic activity in its vicinity. This fault line needs to be closely monitored during the times to come. Of all the surveyed households 71. 3 percent have received relief material in terms of money and clothes, tents, blankets etc. but 28. 7 percent of the households are yet to receive the relief material from the government agen cies.From the total surveyed households more than half of the households i. e. 58. 6 percent want to migrate from their native areas, while as a total of 41. 4 percent want to hold back there. From the surveyed households it was observed that 62. 1 percent of the people are in a state of high mental stress and 37. 9 percent had been affected to a moderate extent. Of the total 41 injured people from the surveyed households 17 people were seriously injured while as 24 people were partially injured. The households also received a serious loss in terms of their livestock i. e. , a total of 22 households had their livestock completely perished. 19 Table 7: Village-wise death toll in the Uri Tehsil S. NO. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NAME OF VILLAGE KAMALKOTE BANDI SARAI CHAPPAR KUNDI BARAJALA SADARA SULTAN DHAKKI BASGRAN DACHI NAWA ARUNDA URDOSA CHAKRA ISHAM BATGRAN GOHALAN CHRUNDA TILWARI URI DEATHS 86 53 10 39 19 46 21 4 22 7 10 24 7 7 31 1 13 S. NO 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2 5 26 27 28 29 30 31 NAME OF VILLAGE URI MOHURA LIMBER BANDI BRAHMANA MACHI SUKHDHAR DARAGUTILAN DAWARAN DHANI SYDAN CHOOLAN ZAMORPATTAN THAJAL GINGAL GAWALTA NAMBLA TOTAL DEATHS 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 514 – – – Suggestions and Future Plan The Uri-II hydroelectric (HE) Project is under construction, which is a concrete straight gravity dam across the Jhelum River, at 1 km upstream of Dachhi Bridge near Salamabad village. During the recent earthquake the buildings of the project have been severely damaged and some damage has been caused to the dam structure as well.The project is a run of the river scheme with its weir near Dachhi village where from the water will be diverted through 540 m open channel followed by 4. 275 km long HRT to underground power house (PH) at Sadwanian village on the left bank of Jhelum River. The discharge from the PH will be diverted to the Jhelum River through a 3775-m TRT with its fallout in Gosalta nala near Urus a. The catchment area of Jhelum River up to dam site of Uri-II HE project is 13400 km2 comprising 12743 Km2 catchment area up to Uri-I head works and 657 km2 intermediate catchment area up to Uri-II dam site. The Design Flood (PMF) has been calculated as 4850 m3/sec. The Full Reservoir Level (FRL) is at 1241 m and the gross storage at FRL is 634. 31 ha m.The downstream areas vulnerable to inundation by dam break flood should be shown in the inundation map. The inundation map should be prepared with the help of water surface elevation profile, which has been computed for maximum flood elevation and discharges at various downstream locations. The detailed inundation map on 1:2,000-scale should be prepared and displayed at all the downstream flood prone locations depicting maximum water level that would be attained. The elevation also should be marked on the inundation maps depicting the topographic and geographical details of downstream areas. 20 Both the areas (Karnah and Uri) fall i n the transition zone between seismic zones IV and V.From north to south three main thrusts occur in the region. They include the Main Karakoram Thrust, which separates the Hindukush-Karakoram belt from the Island Arc of Kohistan. In the south the Main Mantle Thrust separates the latter from Peshawar and Kashmir basins. The southern most is the Main Boundary Thrust, which separates the Lesser Himalaya from the Outer Himalaya. Panjal- and Murree Thrusts are the main tectonic planes that traverse the area. Besides, the Jhelum Tear Fault running in the N-S direction upto Muzzaffarabad and then E-W upto Baramulla separating the Peshawarfrom the Kashmir basin is the most active tectonic plane in the area.Though the area of downstream impact of the Uri-II is only spread over for about 15 km on the Indian side of the LOC but a population of about 7600 people is settled within the reach of dam break flooding. Besides, large population and agricultural and forestlands are at risk in case of dam failure beyond 10 km downstream reach in the PAK. Dam break would also adversely affect these areas. Therefore, monitoring of the RIS and seismic activity in the area is of utmost importance. The water level v/s flood wave has been worked out for project by one of us (GMB) which is given in figure below. Water Level v/s Flood Wave Level 1250 1250 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Down stream Locations Water level Level of Flood Wave Water Level (m) 1150 1100 1050 1000 950S. No 1 2 3 4 5 6 Distance from Dam site (d/s) Dam Axis 200m 700m 2950m 3110m 6100m S. No 7 8 9 10 11 Distance from Dam site (d/s) 8225m 10100m 11475m 12919m 14915m The area has experienced earthquakes of moderate to severe intensity in the past. The epicenters of major earthquakes in Kashmir are related with the mega- (more than 200 km) and intermediate lineaments (100-200 km). However, there is no documentation of seismic activity along the thrusts cutting across the project area. Therefore, a pl an of seismic surveillance of the area by establishing a network of seismic monitoring stations is proposed preferably jointly by India and Pakistan.There are evidences of neotectonic 21 Level of Flood Wave (m) 1200 1200 activity along the thrusts in the area; these thrusts should also be kept under the surveillance for such activities. The area is traversed by Panjal- and Murree Thrusts and Jhelum Fault and, falls in the transition zone between seismic zones IV and V. Besides, a number of lineaments transversely cutting across this thrust- and fault imbricate make the area more prone to neotectonic activity. These structural discontinuities coupled with joint systems and foliation in the rocks of the area makes it more prone disasters. Acknowledgements We wish to place on record sincerely gratitude due to Prof.Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu without whose inspiration, guidance and help the first outreach activity of the Centre for Disaster Studies and Research would not have been possible. We gratefully acknowledge the support extended by the BRO (Beacon) officials (Brigadier S. S. Dasaka, CE; Lt. Col. Jyant Bhamare, O/C 53 RCC and Maj. Y. C. Srivastava, O/C 109 RCC) during our stay in the area and conducting geological investigations. Thanks are due to Army Officials 3 Panjab and Dogra Regiment for their help in conducting the geological survey in the sensitive areas under their command. We gratefully acknowledge the help rendered by Qazi Ab.Hameed (younger brother of ViceChancellor, University of Kashmir), Qazi of the Karnah, whose company with us in the field for two days proved very fruitful in collecting the vital geological information from the area. We would like to place on record the co-operation extended to us by people in guiding us to the most affected areas in the region. We also received help from the J&K Police Department, Beacon and district authorities in the distribution of relief goods in the quake affected areas of Kar nah. References ABAG (2003). Modified Mercalli intensity scale from Richter, C. F. , 1958, Elementary Seismology , W. H. Freeman and Co. , San Francisco, pp. 135-149; 650-653. Bhat, G. M. , Pandita, S. K. , Singh Yudhbir, Singh Sham, Sharma Vinay and Bhat Gulshan (2005).Report on Quake hit Karnah and Uri Tehsils, Kashmir, pp. 1-22 Hussain, S. , Ahmed, N. , Khazai, B. , Ali, Q. , Ali, S. M. and Khan, M. (2006). The Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005: Impacts in Pakistan. EERI Special earthquake report 22 The Members of the Relief – come – Earthquake Investigation Team University of Jammu Sitting First Row left to right Kanchan Sharma, Sanjeev Sharma, Shahnawaz, Iftekhar Sitting Second Row left to right Sham Singh, Vinay Sharma, Rashid Choudhary, Yudhbir Singh Standing from left to right Vikrant Singh, Prof. Ashok Aima, Prof. V. K. Kapoor, Dr. G. M. Bhat, Dr. S. K. Pandita, Ajay Kumar, Gulshan Rashid Bhat 23

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